The Science Museum in London today saw the launch of a new, interactive climate map which illustrates some of the potential impacts of a rise in average global temperature of 4 degrees Celsius. The map is available here and although a little difficult to negotiate at first, if you remove the details by clicking the images at the bottom, then re-add them, you can see how each sector is affected. Once you have chosen an issue, for example drought, you can click through to the Act On Copenhagen web site for more information on the research and impact of a 4 degree rise.
This is not inflammatory rhetoric. The information provided is thoroughly researched and supported by serious scientific studies. There is no attempt to dramatise the results and where the impact of a temperature rise is likely to be small, we are told so. However, to take drought as an example, the projected increase in the percentage of time spent in drought in Southern Africa from 10% of the total time to 19% is a fearsome statistic.
Closer to home, the frequency of droughts in Southern Europe and the Mediterranean is predicted to double, suggesting that food shortages will not be restricted to traditionally more challenging crop-growing regions. As the data for water availability show, the picture is not necessarily better where run-off is predicted to increase. More intense periods of rainfall will make storage and even distribution of water much more difficult. So while some areas of the planet struggle with drought, others face flooding, followed by periods of intense shortages.
The overall message is complex, but the headline is clear. Climate change must be tackled and tackled aggressively. The reports coming out from pre-Copenhagen negotiations are not particularly encouraging – there is inevitable horse-trading and developing nations are concerned that they will face the impact of the West’s oil-fuelled splurge of the past century.
Wherever and however we can, we should be pushing our representatives to succeed in Copenhagen. Strict, binding and achievable targets may lessen the impact of climate change for future generations. It’s not easy and it will get harder, but it is imperative that we act. Here’s a pretty good place to start.
Take a look around the map and let us know if you have any comments about how the changes might impact the planet, what we can do about it and how we can help put pressure on governments in Copenhagen.
